The picks that looked worth it
Croatia (~80/1 to 100/1)
Croatia reached the 2018 final and finished third in 2022, although they went out in the group stage at Euro 2024. Luka Modrić, still playing at 40, is the face of a squad that has stayed together for years. The price reflects the squad's age more than its form. Croatia aren't likely to win the tournament, but they have a habit of going deep, and the each-way bet was more interesting than the straight outright.
Morocco (~40/1 to 50/1)
The first African semi-finalists in World Cup history (Qatar 2022). Much of that core remains, with Achraf Hakimi at full-back, Youssef En-Nesyri up front and Yassine Bounou in goal. The 2022 run was built on defensive organisation and quick counter-attacks, which should suit 2026, and Walid Regragui has had three more years to refine the system. The case against: that run needed a penalty shoot-out win over Spain and a 1-0 win over Portugal. The case for: it happened. Morocco were the only African side priced as a credible knockout contender, and the price looked fair for what they offer.
Colombia (~40/1)
The South American side the global market talks about least. James Rodríguez was player of the tournament at the 2024 Copa América, and Luis Díaz, Daniel Muñoz and Richard Ríos add pace and energy. Colombia qualified comfortably from CONMEBOL and lost the 2024 Copa América final to Argentina only 1-0 after extra time. The price treats Colombia as an ordinary outsider; the squad and form suggest more.
Norway (~30/1 to 35/1)
The most divisive price in this range. Haaland is the obvious headline: Manchester City's top scorer season after season and, at 25, at his peak. Martin Ødegaard adds top-class creativity. But the squad behind them is thinner than the price suggests. Norway haven't played at a major tournament since Euro 2000, they lack experience of tournament pressure, and their qualifying record leaned heavily on Haaland's goals against weaker sides. A lot of the money on Norway follows Haaland's Golden Boot chances rather than the team's. They were the popular pick, not the value pick.
The over-corrected popular picks
Belgium (~22/1)
Belgium's "golden generation" has had its time. Kevin De Bruyne is nearly 35, Romelu Lukaku's form has come and gone, and Thibaut Courtois is still excellent but the defence in front of him is ageing. The price seemed to assume the 2018 squad had one more tournament in it, when the 2026 squad is a clear step down. Belgium looked one to oppose: public money on a big name at a price that didn't reflect the squad.
USA (~55/1)
The highest-profile co-host. The squad includes Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna and Tyler Adams, and Mauricio Pochettino was a sound appointment. The price still assumes the USA will fade in the knockouts, and history supports that. But home advantage is real, the group draw was kind, and a quarter-final was realistic. The outright price of about 55/1 looked fair to slightly generous; the "to reach the semi-finals" price of about 10/1 was the cleaner bet.
Senegal (~150/1)
The 2022 dark horses who didn't deliver. The squad has been refreshed, but there is less depth than the 2022 squad suggested. Morocco were priced well ahead of them, and at 150/1 Senegal looked like a lottery ticket rather than a value bet.
Strategy: how to use the dark horse market
Three observations for SA bettors:
- The Each Way bet is your friend. A side at 40/1 outright is at roughly 8/1 to reach the semi-finals at most operators (with Each Way places paying ¼ odds). For Croatia, Morocco and Colombia specifically, the Each Way structure produces a materially better expected return than straight outright. The casual SA bettor who walks past the Each Way market is leaving structural EV on the table.
- The semi-finalist market is structurally softer than outright winner. Bookmaker margin on "to reach last four" markets is typically lower than on outright winner, because the markets settle earlier (during the quarter-final round) and the operator carries less exposure-time risk. For dark horses, the semi-final market is often the better-priced version of the same underlying bet.
- Choose carefully, then bet once. One small each-way bet on a single dark horse is disciplined. Three dark-horse outrights together is a quick lottery ticket: you pay the margin three times on three unlikely outcomes. Pick one, size it properly and enjoy following it.